13 million fewer Germans

As in most European countries, Germany does not meticulously track the ethnic background of its citizens, which can make it difficult to determine the population growth rate of the native German population.

However, the German census in 2011, indicates that about 80% of the population was ethnically German with no immigrant background, for a total number of 64.7 million.

Extrapolating backward in time, assuming the population was fairly homogenous around 1955, we can approximate the ethnic German population growth rate.

Year Total Population Native Population (est.) Native Percentage Native Growth Rate (annualized)
1955 71313740 71000000 99% 0.30%
1960 73179665 72000000 98% 0.28%
1965 75990737 73000000 96% 0.28%
1970 78366605 74000000 96% 0.27%
1975 78667327 75000000 96% 0.27%
1980 78159527 75000000 96% 0.00%
1985 77570009 74000000 95% -0.27%
1990 78958237 73500000 93% -0.16%
1995 81612900 73000000 89% -0.13%
2000 81895925 71000000 86% -0.55%
2005 81246801 68000000 83% -1.13%
2010 80435307 65000000 80% -0.88%
2015 82000000 62000000 75% -0.92%
2020 83000000 58000000 69% -1.29%

While Germany as a whole has remained stable, the ethnic German population likely peaked at about 75 million in 1975 through 1980 and has been in decline ever since.

So, there were about 13 million fewer Germans alive in 2015. That is a decline of 17%, which matches the declines in the Baltic. This is not surprising given the Germans’ long-term low birth rates.

Since Germans are now on average 47 years old (and that number includes the younger immigrant generation), we can easily assume that the decline will only accelerate.

Projecting out to 2020, ethnic Germans fall to about 58 million, which is just under 70% of the total population.

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